NEXT BIG THING

Three Top Trends for 2012: ---- #1 Cheap And Cheerful

2012-02-03T15:52:00.002+01:00

----

To see just what this trend means for your business, watch our short film here

The Next Big Thing

2012-02-01T13:24:00.000+01:00

-----

Want to understand tomorrow's customer?

Contact Next Big Thing here.

We are a consumer research and future trends consultancy run by trends expert William Higham.

It studies and predicts consumer change patterns and locates new consumer markets across a range of industries, demographics and territories. It runs trend and strategy workshops, writes trend reports and organises future-facing primary research online and in focus groups. Blue chip clients range across industries, from BBC to Budweiser, NatWest to News International.

With consumer behaviour changing at ever-increasing rates, today’s customer is tomorrow’s churn, and competitive advantage is harder to obtain – and maintain. To survive, brands must continually adapt products and strategies well ahead of the competition. We help by offering early warning of future market trends. We use consumer research and systematic analysis of change patterns and cultural dynamics, to help you identify opportunities among current and future markets. Our tailored trend interpretation provides actionable, innovative business solutions for today – and tomorrow.

Company founder William Higham is one of Britain’s leading consumer trend authorities: an acknowledged expert in interpreting research and skilled predictor of consumer change. His expertise comes from 20 years’ consumer experience. He spearheaded press and marketing strategies at Sony, Virgin and Universal in 1990s. After consulting for media and fashion brands, his passion for cultural and consumer trends led him to launch Next Big Thing in 2002. As well as running The Next Big Thing, Higham is a go-to source on consumers for media contacts, and a trends journalist and author. He wrote the UK's first practical guide to trend forecasting ‘The Next Big Thing’ (Kogan Page, 2010)

To learn more, email us (info@next-big-thing.net), call us (0203 539 1398) or check out our website, video channel, Twitter feed, Facebook page and Slideshare page.

A Good Day Out Of The Office, Dear?

2012-01-19T15:45:00.000+01:00

----

Article by William Higham on new work trends in 'The Economist'.

A Good Day Out Of The Office, Dear?
Five trends driving the demand for new working practices

The office as we know it developed in the 19th century as the best way to harness emerging commercial behaviours and meet contemporary needs. Despite enormous external changes, its basic structure has changed little since. If a Victorian manager were transported into today’s office environment, although the technology might surprise him, the layout and practices probably would not.

But this traditional environment, where a set number of salaried employees work 9-5 in fixed silos, is starting to feel increasingly at odds with the contemporary world. External technological, economic and social trends have changed employees’ attitudes towards and expectations of the workplace.

This has implications for business owners. To make the best use of their employees moving forward, and avoid workplace frustrations, many companies will need to invest in major organisational change. However, these trends also offer opportunities to create more efficient ways of working.

Technology

One of the biggest drivers of organisational change is worker adoption of new technologies. Thanks to the introduction of exciting and affordable personal technology products and services, workers today have become more knowledgeable about new technologies and increasingly enthusiastic about adopting them for work.

A more technologically adept workforce should be good news for business owners. Yet, in UK offices at least, it seems employees are not being encouraged to adopt the innovative behaviours they are practising outside work. A December 2011 survey by Dell, for instance, shows that just 37 per cent of UK workers feel free to download the software they favour for work use, compared to 70 per cent of Brazilians.

To maximise efficiency among tech savvy workers, companies will need to adopt new working practices. Restrictions on personal technology use will need to be reassessed. So too will the current practice of relying on traditional IT departments for input on new technology resources, as knowledge is democratised across departments by the experience of personal use.

The need for new practices becomes even clearer when we look at two of the biggest technological trends of recent years: communalisation and mobility.

1. Communalisation and online networking

Communalisation is the increasing adoption of tools that better enable expansion of, and communication with, communities. Thanks to services from email and Skype to Facebook and Twitter, we now have easy access to huge networks of individuals; and are increasingly comfortable communicating with them across a range of media. Whether or not the number of our ‘real’ friends has increased, the number of ‘weak ties’ certainly has. These are people we do not know well, but have connected with via friends, colleagues or events. And, as the Stanford sociologist Mark Granovetter demonstrated in his influential 1973 paper, ‘The Strength Of Weak Ties’, these connections tend to be the most helpful in a work context.

The hundreds, or even thousands, of weak ties we have could act as enablers, connectors, suppliers or administrators. Some progressive companies, especially small and medium sized enterprises, have successfully exploited this trend. But in many larger companies, not only is it rarely encouraged, it is often actively discouraged. Social media sites are frequently seen as a distraction from work, or threat to company security.

A study I ran with researchers OnePoll in mid-2011 illustrates the disconnect. We questioned 500 British senior and middle managers about social media use. When asked about personal usage, 65 per cent said they use Facebook, 29 per cent LinkedIn and 30 per cent Twitter. But when asked how many use these tools for business, the figures dropped to 39, 20 and 23 per cent respectively.

2. Mobility

The other major technology trend in recent years is a move towards mobility. As scientific advances have enabled greater miniaturisation, so consumers have consistently chosen hardware that helps them function more effectively ‘on the go’: trading down from desktops to laptops, laptops to tablets and tablets to smart phones. Increased mobile functionality is transforming the behaviour of millions, as they take greater mobile control of their personal lives – from purchasing to viewing, navigating to banking. This is driving the trend to a ‘frictionless’ lifestyle: everyone can now perform tasks efficiently across platforms, unrestricted by the necessary movements of a daily routine.

Yet the efficiencies of mobile administration are not being reflected enough in the workplace. Even those employees whose personal lives are almost entirely administered via mobile devices, still typically lead working lives organised around a single fixed desktop computer, with all the temporal inefficiencies that creates in today’s 24-hour global business environment.

Socio-economic change

Economic trends too are contributing to a greater demand for new, more flexible working practices. These may not have as immediate an effect on the workplace as technology trends, but could become important in the long term.

3. Entrepreneurialism and contract work

Entrepreneurialism has been seen to rise during economic downturns. As redundancy rates grow, it is harder for the new unemployed to find regularly waged jobs, forcing many into freelance work. In the US the number of start-ups in 2010 was at a 15 year high. And, according to surveys by the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor, necessity was a factor for 24.7 per cent of all new US start-ups in 2009, up from just 16.3 per cent in 2007. These ‘necessity entrepreneurs’ are typically selfemployed or running very small businesses, and often return to waged employment as the economy improves.

This is likely to impact tomorrow’s workplace. Those that do return can use the experience of running a small company to enhance the business of their new employer, but will expect more autonomy in return. Those that don’t return will provide a greater bank of outsourcing opportunities.

An increase in entrepreneurialism will also add to a general trend towards nontraditional waged workers, especially as it dovetails with a growth in part time and contract work. In the long term this could contribute to a reassessment of what constitutes a ‘normal’ worker, and therefore a ‘normal’ working environment.

4. Work life balance

For some, economic downturns can actually encourage re-prioritisation of their work life balance. Research carried out across Europe by global advertising agency Omnicom Group in 2009, for instance, found that over half of those polled had prioritised their family more since the start of the recession. Such individuals are likely to seek out working roles that offer them greater temporal and spatial flexibility. They will increasingly want to control when and where they work.

5. Millennials

The final trend stimulating demand for organisational change is generational. Today’s youngest employees, the Millennials, grew up in a digital rather than an analogue world and, unlike Baby Boomers, they are ‘natives’ when it comes to today’s new technology world. On the simplest level, this means that the impact of the technology trends described above is even stronger for them than for their elders.

But the environment they grew up in affects their attitude to work in other ways too. The ubiquity of computers and the internet has stimulated a less linear approach to activities such as creation and administration: less A to B to C, and more A to Z to C. The advent of home computers, mobile phones and social networking encouraged greater merging of work and leisure. A trend for more equal parent child relationships has, for some, created an expectation of flatter power structures elsewhere.

In the long term, Millennial influence is good news. Digital revenues are increasingly important across industries, and digital natives are best placed to exploit them. However, as many employers are discovering, Millennials can struggle in today’s office environment, with its emphasis on traditional structures, hierarchies, regular hours and required attendance. To drive efficiencies among them, employers should explore more Millennial-friendly practices: for instance, a new approach to incentives and rewards, and less reliance on regular hours.

Future

The business community has an opportunity to learn from the new behavioural and attitudinal trends of its workforce. According to a survey last month from the McKinsey Global Institute, many businesses believe that “if organizational barriers to the use of social technologies diminish, they could form the core of entirely new business processes that may radically improve performance”.

But there still appears to be a reluctance to integrate into the workplace behaviours that are becoming second nature outside of it. That needs to change if businesses are to take full advantage of contemporary technologies, create more efficient working methods and compete on the global stage.

To avoid future workplace frustrations, especially among the young and those prioritising non-work relationships, businesses should consider greater temporal and spatial flexibility, and results-based rewards. As technology enables more selfsufficiency, they should also investigate dissolving hierarchical structures to give more project responsibility to individuals. The practice of outsourcing to small consultancies could be extended into new disciplines such as marketing and new product development. Employers should focus more on the opportunities social networking offers, for identifying new business opportunities and locating more efficient suppliers, than on its detrimental effects. And they should explore the advantages inherent in mobile technology. For instance, the efficiencies offered by home working, or temporarily re-locating project teams to non-headquarters based locations such as co-working spaces.

Of course, the adoption of new practices won’t be easy. It will require trial and error, and may create some friction in the short term. But observing how well their employees have adapted to accelerated levels of change outside of the office should encourage business leaders to make important changes themselves.

Your Tech Resolutions For 2012

2012-01-03T12:04:00.000+01:00

----

Interview with William Higham in 'The Director' magazine

There's never been a more important time to harness technology to help your business. We asked the experts for five technology trends directors should embrace in 2012. From cloud computing and social networking to what the office of the future will look like, here's what they said…

A quick glance out of the nearest window right now is likely to reveal an army of joggers, as people welcome the new year in the traditional way – aiming to become healthier, break bad habits and embrace new things. It's an approach that should also be adopted in business, say experts, as 2012 promises to be a crucial year when taking maximum advantage of rapidly developing technology trends could mean the difference between success and failure. A proactive attitude towards technology from directors themselves, they say, will be key to saving time and money, boosting productivity and unlocking new opportunity.

That's the opinion of William Higham, founder of future trends consultancy The Next Big Thing. "It's such a volatile world that the first resolution for any business leader coming into 2012 must be to become change-friendly," he says. "I can't think of any sector that could not change massively within the next year. So before you even start thinking about what those changes might be, you must ensure that you as an individual and your company as a whole is open to change and has the structure in place to allow it. There needs to be a place within any strategic discussion for technology and what it can offer."

And Higham believes a tendency to leave technology considerations to IT departments impedes progress: "If you leave it to them you're hampering your own abilities to move the company forward," he says. "In the same way, you wouldn't be a good business leader without knowing about financial issues – if you had to rely on your finance department for any knowledge of finance, you wouldn't have got very far. So you need to get up to speed, we're in a period of constant learning."

Higham and other experts gave Director five key tech resolutions for 2012…

1. Get your head in the cloud

Cloud computing – the access of services and the storage of data via platforms on the internet – is undoubtedly the trend to watch in 2012, predicts entrepreneur and former Dragons' Den panellist James Caan. "The cloud is going to play a significant part in the UK's recovery," he says. "Businesses are being started up in bedrooms using cloud computing. It will be the gateway to explode entrepreneurship."

Anne Boden, former head of Global Transaction Services for RBS in Europe, agrees. "Today even the smallest companies can benefit from the best technology in the marketplace," she says. "What cloud will do is connect the vision with the capability."

But it's not just start-ups that can benefit by accessing everything from accountancy software to real-time analytical tools online. Established companies can cut costs by switching to cloud-based infrastructure as Caan himself discovered. "Recently we moved offices and typically when that happens you can end up spending anything up to £250,000 upgrading your IT infrastructure," he says. "But we looked at going for cloud over hardware and it was more like £1,500 a month. To think we can have a smarter system that costs substantially less, there's no question that will have an impact."

With major companies including Google, Amazon and IBM competing to provide businesses with the platform to operate in the cloud, apps and services range from the free, to the pay-as-you-use, to the full-blown contract models. But even with that degree of scalable flexibility, it seems some companies are reluctant to use the cloud. Recent research by global risk consultancy Protiviti found that only three in 10 UK firms are planning to use cloud computing over the next three years. Concerns over the security of data stored in the cloud are cited as a major reason for the hesitation.

But from those who put faith in the cloud, tales of improved efficiency abound. Richard Alvin, group managing director of Capital Business Media, moved the company from an office server-based system to the cloud. "We have four dashboards that look after every aspect of our company," he says. "Using these we've reduced overhead cost by 27 per cent and headcount as well."

But, if this all-out approach is too much for some, Eric Van Der Kleij, chief executive of London's Tech City hub, suggests using the cloud to test new ideas is a good way to start. "A great advantage of cloud is agile development tools," he says. "Entrepreneurs can throw an idea together, throw it up into the cloud in a couple of weeks and just see if it works."

2. Escape the information overload

While the combination of internet, email and mobile devices keeps us in contact with our colleagues and the wider world ever more comprehensively, experts warn that a failure to embrace ways of dealing with the resulting information barrage could seriously hamper efficiency.

"We're now talking in zettabytes," says Higham. "If you took the entire amount of information that was available across the whole internet in 2009 and multiplied it by two, that's a zettabyte [the equivalent of one sextillion bytes]. In 2011, we've created two zettabytes, and by 2015 it will be eight zettabytes. That's just crazy, we can't organise ourselves in the same way we used to. It's like moving from a village to a city."

It seems it's not just the internet that's turning into a virtual jungle. Research released in October by NationalField, the business social network operator, claimed that 20 per cent of UK office workers receive an average of 50 emails a day from colleagues alone. "Finding ways to quickly organise, analyse and present the data we receive ought to be a major focus for 2012," says Higham. "The business leader needs to really focus on finding what will work best with their types of data – things like infographics and the next generation of analytics tools will be essential."

Just one of the many companies looking to cash in on data overload by providing such tools is Mindjet, which has launched a new version of its information visualisation software MindManager 2012. Based on the idea that the human brain doesn't efficiently absorb data presented in a linear way, the program allows users to quickly create spider diagram-style representations of received information called mind maps. "It's been designed to meet the needs of today's professionals, who are barraged with new opportunities," explains Mindjet's chief projects officer Blaine Mathieu.

A cloud-based version of the software also allows colleagues in different locations to work collaboratively on projects at the same time – while giving the director the added advantage of being able to remotely check on work in development, in real time, from brainstorm to completion. "The new Directed Brainstorm feature organises an outpouring of ideas that can quickly be honed into real solutions for real business needs," says Mathieu.

3. Be more sociable

As if dealing with the bombardment of correspondence wasn't enough, the signs are that the immediacy of social networks such as Facebook and Twitter is creating a consumer who expects a faster response time than ever before from companies hoping for their custom. Peter Kelly, enterprise director of Vodafone UK, explains that failure to engage quickly is becoming costly for businesses. "Younger people, particularly, will make purchase decisions rapidly based on your response rate. A third of 16- to 24-year-olds expect a response to an email within an hour.

"We also found that in 2010 the average piece of lost business to a small or medium company due to not responding to communication was £30,000," says Kelly. "That's a rise of £10,000 on the previous year –in 2012 it's going to be fundamental."

Higham agrees: "While the trend in hardware technology has been for miniaturisation and mobility, in software it has been about community and communication and yet there are still companies out there who are not fully embracing social media. Research I did with OnePoll found that only 49 per cent of middle and senior managers thought social media could be of any use within a business. That's a shocking statistic.

"The other aspect is that there are now three times as many smartphones in the world as there are PCs. Anybody who's thinking 'I just need to have an internet site' is being short-sighted – you have to make sure everything is also geared towards mobile technology, be that smartphones or tablets. Most brands have yet to create a mobile website for their company, but it's becoming essential. Be mobile, and be sociable, and try to adapt your structure to be able to respond quickly. A day is definitely too late."

4. Mobilise your troops

Growth in the use of smartphones, tablets and laptops is having another effect on the workplace. "We call it consumerisation," says Kelly. "As Generation Y joins the workforce, they're increasingly used to having smart IT and communications technology at home, and the expectation is they're going to get that at work." A survey by the Six Degrees managed data service also found that 78 per cent of employees believed their own devices to be superior to those supplied by their employer.

But although experts agree there are security issues for directors to consider before allowing employees to use their own devices for work, they believe Generation Y's knowledge of emerging technologies could provide useful insights to directors on their future use by the business.

"You may have a lot of individuals within your company who are trying to do things with new technology and you probably have systems in place that are not letting them do that," says Higham. "Talk to people within your organisation, open yourself up to ideas they might have. The staff can often be seen as a representation of the customer, who is often more knowledgeable about technology than businesses themselves."

Generation Y's tech knowledge and flexible attitude is also set to define where we work, and this may help businesses, says Kelly: "At Vodafone we talk about 'new ways of working'. It's about becoming more agile, cost effective and better serving your customers. One way to do this could be to move your operation away from a traditional desk-based, bricks and mortar, nine-to-five operation. Increasingly Generation Y want a company that allows them to work from home if they need to, or from a coffee shop or on a Saturday evening if that's what they choose to do."

Higham agrees: "You've got to slim down. Approaches like remote working can ensure overheads are lower and you're quicker. The famous story of the tortoise and the hare, and the concept that slow and steady wins the race – we've been brought up to believe that it's a good idea to be the tortoise. But right now you don't want to be a tortoise, in 2012 the hare is going to win the race." His theory is backed by the 2020 Vision report from Bibby Financial Services, which predicts that the number of small and nimble mobile businesses in the UK will increase by 20 per cent by 2020.

5. Don't let security fears hold you back

While there are advantages to be gained from using the cloud and embracing mobile working, the concern felt by many regarding the security of these technologies is understandable. Statistics released at the information security conference Hacker Halted in Miami in October pointed to a 400 per cent rise in Android mobile malware in 2011, and put the number of new malicious websites detected every month at two million. "I don't think it's a case of allowing a free-for-all of all people bringing any device into the work environment and then just crossing your fingers," says Kelly.

"But I think security solutions have come a long way in the last 18 months in that they're much more agile and user-friendly. A couple of years ago security was very complex and to have deep security invariably slowed you down, now there are a lot of solutions that are phenomenally secure but also more manageable. For smartphones and tablets the trend you'll see in future is almost what you might call a split device – there'll be the element of the device which has your personal email, websites, social media and so on and then the element that is linked securely to the corporate network."

Anne Boden, meanwhile, is backing security in the cloud. "Security breaches are often when somebody gives someone their password or hasn't followed procedure," she says. "I use cloud because I can trust someone else to operate the software properly and I can't trust me."

Higham believes that in the future protecting data may not be the priority at all for many businesses. "It's not going to be about how much information you have or the innovation of the data – it's about how quickly you can analyse and exploit it," he says.

3D printing… the next big thing?

Though it's not yet entirely economically viable, 3D printing is a technology to keep an eye on, says William Higham of The Next Big Thing. It allows the creation of, in theory, any object of any size in 3D on a computer – which can then be printed in a chosen material by the laying down of successive layers. "I think the idea of 3D prototyping will grow hugely," says Higham. "The idea that you can create things and test them much more quickly will have a huge impact. It's something that business leaders will need to look at in future."

The office of the future

"If my grandfather was alive today and walked into my home, he'd have some real issues – if I showed him a mobile phone, he wouldn't know what to do," says William Higham. "But if he walked into an office, he'd be fine – there's the meeting room, the partitions, the boss's office. The structure hasn't moved on. We've got a Victorian office. Would we accept a Victorian home? In the future we're going to see a massive shift away from a fixed office – whether this is remote working, hot desking or flexible hours, technology will enable us to do that."

Grandparents Prop Up The British Economy

2011-12-19T18:36:00.000+01:00

----

Interview with William Higham in 'The Daily Express'

Grandparents are increasingly having to deal with the burden of childcare

Grandparents are increasingly bearing the burden of having to prop up Britain's workers, it was claimed today.With the economy in crisis, stretched parents are having to rely on their own parents to look after their children as they are forced to leave the home for work and can not afford childcare.

A survey by Interflora revealed a staggering 60 per cent of grandparents are providing regular chlldcare while their own children are at work.

Indeed, 71 per cent said it was the childcare provided by grandparents that meant parents could actually go out to work.

With more than 90% of grandparents playing this caring role without payment it’s easy to see the vital service the older generation is providing for Britain’s faltering economy.

William Higham, of consumer trends consultancy Next Big Thing, says: “In difficult economic times families often come together. We’re seeing the beginnings of a Happy Families trend, where the ‘we’re all in this together’ mantra is becoming very real."

The rising cost of childcare is a real problem for parents, many of whom are finding it unaffordable to work.

In fact, 67 per cent of parents said that could not afford to go out to work were it not for the help of their parents.

A recent study by Save the Children and the Daycare Trust revealed that for 41 per cent of parents the costs of childcare are on a pay with mortgage or rent payments.

What The Hell Is SteamPunk?

2011-12-06T10:11:00.000+01:00

----

Article by William Higham in 'The Huffington Post':

SteamPunk is the most famous new trend that you’ve never heard of. To those in the know it’s been around for years. For others, it’s “Steam what?”

It’s certainly not new. The first SteamPunk (SP) convention took place in 2006: and the word was actually added to The Oxford English Dictionary last year. But it’s yet to hit the Media or the mainstream. To me it feels like Emo did in the mid-Noughties, just before it broke big: when you could see queues round the block for underground Emo gigs but no-one in the Media was talking about it.

So what the hell is SteamPunk? The term itself comes from science fiction novels. It was allegedly coined by author Kevin Jeter as a way of distinguishing him and fellow Retro-Tech sci-fi writers from future-loving “CyberPunks” like William Gibson. But it’s grown into a whole visual style, and even a philosophy. It’s all about mixing old and new: fusing the usability of modern technology with the design aesthetic and philosophy of the Victorian age. Or as US young fiction author Caitlin Kittredge put it: “It’s sort of Victorian-industrial, but with more whimsy and fewer orphans ...”

In its glibbest sense, it can be seen as a way of giving your personal technology a Goth make-over. Imagine a top of the range computer pimped out to look like an old typewriter, or an iPhone dock that lets you answer your phone using an old brass and wood receiver. But at its deepest, it’s a whole way of looking and living: and a colourful protest against the inexorable advance of technology itself. And it’s a trend that’s sneaking its way into loads of different sectors: from fashion to film, interior design to video games.

The look pre-dated the term. High tech Victoriana can be found in Disney’s ‘50s and ‘60s adaptations of Jules Verne’s Around The World In 80 Days and 20,000 Leagues Under The Sea, the contraptions of Chitty Chitty Bang Bang’s Caractacus Potts, and even in our very own Bagpuss. More recently, maverick creatives like Terry Gilliam, Tim Burton and Alan Moore took up the style and made it their own, in films like Baron Munchausen and Alice In Wonderland, and comics like The League Of Extraordinary Gentlemen. But it’s only now becoming a heavily adopted style – or lifestyle.

Its biggest impact so far has been in product design. It has reignited a love of “old fashioned” materials: brass and copper, wood, glass, mechanical workings, ornate engraving. It has also co-opted the re/upcycling aesthetic in its love of the old, the repaired, the reworked and the imperfect. And it has done so across a range of sectors. The retro-pimped products mentioned above are amongst hundreds of SP products that can now be bought online, from coffee tables to watches (in fact it just might help save the declining watch industry). And SP products are becoming a common sight on craft marketplace Etsy.

The look is also starting to influence street fashion. SteamPunk clothing typically adds the ‘best’ looks of the Victorian era - explorers, soldiers, countesses, lords and prostitutes – to today’s most relevant street styles: Goth, Burlesque, the fetishism of the Suicide Girls, the lace and leather of pirates, and the frills and capes of vampires. A few SP elements have already been seen in Top Shop, from spiked clothes to jewellery. The trend may even have influenced this season’s High Fashion trends for Fetish, Glamour and Dressing Up.

Meanwhile, TV series like the BBC’s latest Sherlock Holmes adaptation and US thriller Warehouse 13 owe a debt to SteamPunk style in their mixing of the 19th and 21st Centuries, as do the later Harry Potter films. There are SP video games, like the highly acclaimed Bioshock, featuring an undersea world of diving bells and crinolined orphan girls. As SP has grown, so too has the service industry around it. So you can now have SP weddings, with mechanical cakes. The trend has even given rise to its own vocabulary in which, for instance, people don’t arrive, they “dock” (as in from an airship). There are a growing number of underground SP club nights too, from the pioneering White Mischief to Club Antichrist in London’s (very SP-appropriate) Whitechapel districts. There are even SP bands, from Abney Park in the US to The Fearless Vampire Killers in the UK. Although not sharing a musical sound yet, such bands feature the style in their artwork, clothes, videos and lyrics. Even established bands like Panic At The Disco and rock godfathers Rush are including SP elements in their videos and tours.

The SP trend is one of a bunch of new trends linked to the Victorian age. There’s a growing youth interest in Victorian spiritualism and the occult. Hasbro has just launched a glow-in-the-dark Ouija Board. Interiors shops are selling specimen cases, bell jars and taxidermy. There are increasing references to magic (perhaps spurred on by Steve Jobs’ use of the term?) Books set in the Victorian era, such as The Crimson Petal And The White, are proving popular too. Tate Liverpool’s Alice In Wonderland exhibition later this year is part of a trend for Victorian books and illustrations. And two big new films are set back then: The Raven, a thriller about horror writer Edgar Allen Poe, and this year’s Christmas blockbuster Sherlock Holmes 2: A Game Of Shadows, with Robert Downey Jr and Jude Law.

It might seem counter-intuitive that the Victorian era should appeal to young people who’ve grown up in a world of high tech gadgets. But actually, being raised in an era of new freedoms, where boundaries are constantly blurring, and by parents determined not to impose “stuffy rules” or prejudices on their offspring, can be a disorientating experience. Many Millennials are therefore drawn to eras and trends with rules and boundaries: hence the appeal of the more defined, black and white attitudes of the Victorian age. The age also seems particularly exciting and mysterious, with its glamorous clothes and uniforms, intrepid explorers, dastardly villains and dusty labs: especially for a younger generation whose interests are increasingly retro. There is even a present day environmentalist element to it all: a harking back to a time before smog and global warming, when the worst emission was the steam from steam trains.

SteamPunk’s Retro-Tech style isn’t completely limited to Victoriana though. Styles can be taken from anywhere in the giant dressing-up box of the 19th and early 20th centuries, the broadness of which is part of the trend’s appeal. One of the most popular looks is the Edwardian era, where clothes are very Downton Abbey, and spies, airships and flying goggles are all the rage. Still others look forward not back - or perhaps, dare I say, back to the future (Back To The Future’s Doc Brown is another SP touchstone) - because the trend also takes inspiration from those dystopian sci-fi films that show Post-Apocalyptic societies having to make do with broken or retro-fitted technology: from Blade Runner and The Matrix to Tank Girl and Mad Max.

Whatever the era they prefer, SteamPunks share common interests: they all relish retro-looking technology, making things for themselves, and the romanticism and stability of the long ago. And they’re going to be the next big youth and style trend – with any luck. So do you feel lucky, SteamPunks?

(The above article was first published in The Huffington Post 04.10.11 as one of William Higham's columns)

Differing Consumer & Business Attitudes Towards Social Media

2011-11-15T11:22:00.000+01:00

Our New Primary Research on Social Media

I recently completed two surveys with online research specialists OnePoll that studied current consumer and business attitudes towards Social Media.

We asked 2,000 people who regularly use some form of social media and 500 senior and middle management what their attitudes are towards social media. The polls were conducted as self-completion online surveys.

The results make interesting reading. There is a clear disconnect between consumer and business attitudes. Consumer attitudes towards brands are directly influenced by both positive and negative comments on social media. But businesses typically undervalue social media: in fact business people are much more likely to use social media for personal than business purposes.

Findings - Consumer

If people saw a complaint about a product on a social media site, 87% say it would have a negative impact on their feelings towards that brand:
· it would put 31% of them off the product
· it would make a further 56% concerned about the product

If people saw praise for a product on a social networking site, 83% say it would have a positive impact on their feelings towards that brand:
· it would make 26% of them more likely to buy or use the product
· it would make a further 57% investigate the product

35% of people have posted a negative comment about a product or company on a social media site55% of people woulddo so if they had a bad experience with a product or company

31% of people have posted a positive comment about a product or company on a social media site49% people woulddo so if they had a bad experience with a product or company

Three quarters of people (73%) say they’d complain if they felt wronged by a company
· Three quarters (74%) of them people would make their complaint via email
· 23% would do so in person
· 41% who’d do so by phone
· 42% would do so by letter

35% would post their negative comment automatically if they had a problem, 33% would do so if they tried to complain to the company direct but received no reply and 20% if they couldn’t find a way to complain to the company directly

Almost two thirds (63%) would make that comment the same day they had the experience

Of those that have posted a complaint on social media, 86% did so on Facebook and 25% on Twitter

29% would consider getting a social media account especially to complain if they did not have one already – but just 15% would get one specially to praise a company

Almost a third (30%) think they spend more time complaining about products than praising them – but just 19% think they spend more time praising – and 51% spend about the same time on each

Findings - Business

Less than half of senior / middle management think social media is important for business (47%)

11% think it is a waste of time for business, 22% don’t think it’s a useful business tool – and 22% don’t have an opinion on it.

Many more of them use social media for personal use than business use (eg 65% use Facebook for social, but just 39% for work; 29% Linked In personally vs 20% for business; and 30% Twitter personally vs 23% for business)

38% of senior / middle management admit that their company uses social media enough

The reasons they don’t use it enough are: other things take priority (42%); senior management don’t consider it a priority (27%); the company doesn’t have the time (25%); don’t have the expertise (23%); and 21% just haven’t got around to it. And it’s not about the money: just 4% say they haven’t done it because it would be too expensive.

The Death Of The Bookshelf

2011-11-10T09:53:00.000+01:00

----

Article by William Higham in 'The Huffington Post':

It's not often that the re-designing of a shelf signals a major new trend: but Ikea's rather unimposing new-look 'Billy' shelves is an unlikely exception. These shelves - previously created to hold books, CDs or DVDs - are being re-designed to hold ornaments and mementoes. Seems mundane? Actually it signals one of the biggest shifts in consumer attitudes in thirty years...

Back in the mid to late '80s, status was key - and simple to define. It was all about show and display. The designer labels you wore defined how important you were. And the music, films and books on your shelves defined how 'cool'. This has to a great extent held true since. But there have been signs of a shift in recent years. The first step was the move from Conspicuous Consumption to Stealth Wealth. Instead of impressing your friends and colleagues with your jewellery or sports car, you now did so with products that had more emotional residence or functionality, such as designer kitchens or baby buggies.

What's happening now is an even bigger step. We are seeing the beginnings of a new social trend I've christened People Not Products. We're starting to care less about owning products than we did, as we begin to value other, 'human' things more. A combination of life-threatening events (from terrorist attacks to global warming) and the economic downturn means many people have been re-assessing what really matters to them. Of course we've not completely given up our love of things. After over fifty years of mass consumerism, it's going to take a lot to completely remove all traces of the shopping bug. But when you are confronted by the possible loss of your loved ones or your job, then your friends and family start seeming much more important - and the handbag or DVD box set you bought last week increasingly less so. And as they do, so we will buy fewer and fewer of them - and fill less of our shelf space with them.

The People Not Products trend is not the only driver of Shelf Death. Another key factor is the growth of digitisation and the falling demand it has created for book, CD and DVD storage. When a subscription to BSkyB or Spotify gives you immediate access to thousands of films or albums, there is less and less point in owning a few dozen - or even a few hundred. I am a case in point. I love music, films and writing. And I love the products attached to them. But even I have started to change. I've put all my CDs into storage, sold the majority of my DVDs and given most of my books to Oxfam. Almost all my recent audio or video purchases have been downloads. In fact, since downloading the Kindle app to my iPad, I haven't set foot in a bookshop - though I've bought dozens of new books digitally. My shelves aren't barren yet: I'm keeping beautifully designed box sets and precious first editions, plus a few DVDs I haven't the heart to let go (I'll probably go to my grave with copies of 'Annie Hall' and 'Blade Runner' clutched to my chest). But, like an increasing number of Britons, the switch to digital means my home's no longer looking like a branch of HMV.

So if we're going to be getting rid of CDs, DVDs and books, what will we put in their place? The answer lies in the People Not Products trend again. And it's what makes Ikea's Billy shelf so important. As we gently lose our desire to display our purchases, our desire to connect with other people is growing. We're spending more time communicating with others than ever before. We're increasingly appreciating unique experiences, from holidays to concerts. And we are more and more interested in the human story behind those products we do buy. The more we value these human interactions, the more we will fill our shelves with evidence of them. When choosing what to display, we'll be driven less by status than by memories, heritage and emotional value. Instead of the latest or 'coolest' books and CDs, don't be surprised to see your friends' shelves increasingly weighed down by, say, some driftwood they found on a holiday in Thailand, crayon drawings made by friends' or family members' children, or vases made by an 80 year old local potter.

From a human point of view, this is a step forward - or perhaps more accurately a positive step backwards. For business, however, it presents a threat. Especially for those businesses that relied on the purchase of mass-market products for their profits. The trick for companies will be to find a way to monetise this trend. This will mean focusing more on heritage than price, more on human interaction than individual consumption and more on uniqueness than status.

(The above article was first published in The Huffington Post 04.10.11 as one of William Higham's columns)

Flip Flop Generations: Getting Older Younger

2011-10-25T17:40:00.000+01:00

Article by William Higham in 'AdWeek':

"Planners, account directors and researchers are typically busy people. Under a barrage of internal and client demands, it's hard for us not to fall into shorthand approaches sometimes. For instance, when targeting different age groups. But it's time for a wake-up call. Standard age-related targeting can't be relied on any more, thanks to a new social trend: flip-flop generations. Many adolescents today are acting in ways we might expect middle-age Americans to do, while older consumers are maintaining their "adolescent" interests, outlooks and behaviors into middle age.

"Adolescence is traditionally viewed as a time of hedonism, risk taking, iconoclasm and a refusal to "settle down." But the times they are a changing -- and not the way Dylan described.

"For today's teenagers, it's less about breaking down barriers than retreating behind them. Anxiety levels are rising among the young, thanks perhaps to a mix of political events and "paranoid parenting." Recent surveys suggest as many as one in five teens now suffers from clinical depression. A typical teenager today exhibits more anxiety than child psychiatric patients did in the 1950s, according to the American Psychological Association. This is driving a trend for more conservative behaviors.

"Although there are many teenagers today who are hedonistic and liberal, I'm seeing a growing trend away from these traits. According to government figures, recent youth rates for illicit drugs have "declined significantly," falling 25 percent in the last six years. Drinking and smoking rates are also down. Today's conserva-teens are also more concerned about their financial future -- an attitude accelerated by recent economic events. In a recent BBDO survey, U.S. teens chose financial security as their No. 1 life goal.

"Teenagers are also proving more cautious in their purchase patterns. They are no longer the unanimously excitable "early adopters" of youth marketing studies. In a global Microsoft survey last year called "Young Adults Revealed," just 10 percent of teens said they "like to be ahead of everybody else and try to buy the latest technology as soon as it becomes available," whereas 40 percent "like to wait and see what other people make of new technology before I buy it." As for their values, there is a growing emphasis on morality and family. Three-quarters of those in the Microsoft survey identified family as the most important thing in their lives -- a far cry from the generation gap of the 1960s and '70s. In the BBDO poll more than half list "living by high moral standards" as their top life expectation, almost half believe it best to remain a virgin as long as possible, and 83 percent expect to get married.

"Meanwhile, at the other end of the age divide, something very different is occurring. Middle and old age are traditionally seen as times of conformity, responsibility, risk aversion and settling down. Yet instead of retiring with pipe and slippers to listen to the classics, many of the new old are still pursuing the sex, drugs and rock 'n' roll lifestyle of their youth. The National Council on Aging claims 61 percent of all 60-somethings today are still sexually active. And singles 55 and older are the fastest growing group of online daters. Meanwhile, the rate of 50-somethings' illicit drug use rose more than 70 percent during 2002-08; marijuana is now more prevalent with them than with any other age group. Four million Americans age 50 or older are estimated to have used at least one drug illicitly in the past year, according to the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration's "National Survey on Drug Use and Health, 2009."

"What about rock 'n' roll? Two-thirds of over 50s listen to rock more than any other genre, according to the Pew Research Center. And Recording Industry Association of America data show that over 40s are the only age group whose music purchasing has risen in the last decade. The new old are pursuing other adolescent activities, too. A quarter of Americans over 50 play video games -- up almost threefold since 1999 -- and the average "frequent game purchaser" is 39-years-old, according to the Entertainment Software Association. The average motorcyclist is 47-years-old, according to J.D. Power and Associates, and other Pew Research Center data show that three-quarters of baby boomers own cellphones and nearly a third have created a social networking profile.

"With such attitudinal and behavioral shifts, it's time to reassess age-related segmentation. Products and services we assumed teens would never want may now appeal to them, like insurance and pensions. But those we once happily sold them may now have to be rebranded for older markets, from street fashion and alcopops to personal technology. The standard "edgy" teen-focused ad -- appealing to rebellious, hedonistic or iconoclastic values -- may not work with the new teen, whereas ads that appeal to traditional values might. Those edgy ads might now be better aimed at the boomers, perhaps fronted by Aerosmith's Steven Tyler or Blondie's Debbie Harry.

"Obviously not every teenager or boomer conforms to these new typologies. But statistics suggest more and more do. It's time to start targeting the conserva-teen and the new old. I'm already talking to my clients about making radical changes to the way they target older and younger customers. That is, while I'm not indulging my aging sex, drugs and rock 'n' roll lifestyle."

This articler was written by William Higham, who runs future trends and consumer research consultancy The Next Big Thing. He is the author of The Next Big Thing: Spotting & Forecasting Consumer Trends for Profit. He can be reached at william@next-big-thing.net.

[This article was published in AdWeek on 17th March 2010]

Regaining Control - Building consumer confidence by allowing them to make more decisions

2011-10-04T15:37:00.000+01:00

Article by William Higham in 'Deluxe Knowledge Quarterly'

For many banking consumers, the recession has revealed shortcomings in self-control.You must help them develop that sense of control once again.

I spent much of 2009 talking to consumers in various marketsabout the effects of the economic downturn. Much of what Iheard surprised me. Far from seeing the downturn as a purelynegative experience, many consumers saw it as a positiveopportunity to reassert control over their lives.

Consumer confidence has fallen across a range of institutions.Today, only half of all U.S. adults trust the companies they dobusiness with. New studies suggest they may be losing faith inthe future as well, including any institution’s ability to accuratelypredict or safeguard it. Consumers see many problems they faceas beyond their control, from the economy and global warmingto terrorism.To limit the influence of politicians, brands and media on theirlives, and to regain a semblance of personal control, peopleincreasingly seek to make their own decisions wherever possible.Meanwhile, many consumers are suffering a financial hangover.The recession woke them up to just how much they hadborrowed or spent in recent years — in other words, how littleself-control they had been exercising.

The power of empowerment

The “consumer in control” trend is growing both vertically andhorizontally. Consumers are seeking influence over more andmore areas of their lives, and in an increasing number of ways.First, they are taking control of areas they might previously haveleft up to the experts. For instance, consumer attitudes towardhealth have changed dramatically in recent decades. The “selfhealth”trend sees patients increasingly determining their ownwellness. Consequently, the fastest-growing grocery products arethose perceived to be healthy. Sales of self-diagnostics and bookson nutrition are also rising, along with pharmacy sales. Othersectors with consumers retaking control include broadcast mediathrough DVRs, music through iTunes playlists, and educationthrough home schooling and private schools.Similar changes are taking place in financial services. Manyconsumers I spoke to mentioned taking greater control oftheir day-to-day finances. They increasingly live by budgetsand financial to-do lists —unprecedented practicesfor many people under30. Growth in demandfor borrowing and“overspending” has slowed.According to MasterCard,more than two-thirds ofEuropean consumers onlywant to spend what they canafford. And there are signsthat consumers may yet regainthe savings habit. In the U.S.,the savings rate leapt from0.8% to 5.9% during the twoyears preceding May 2009.Of course, consumers cannotdo all of this on their own.They need some help fromothers, which is why theimportance of formal andinformal peer-to-peer (P2P)purchase drivers is growing.According to a 2009 studyby Econsultancy, 90% ofonline consumers trustrecommendations frompeople they know, and 70%trust the opinions of unknownusers.

Meeting them where they are

Not only are consumerslooking to influence newareas of their lives, they arelooking to do so in newways. Impulse and brandledpurchasing is decliningas more consumers minedata online before theybuy. Consumers are alsodemanding greater influenceon when, where and howthey purchase. E-commercehas given many a taste for24/7 shopping, browsingand communicating,across any channel thatsuits them. Increasinglyconfident in expressing theirindividuality, consumers willexpect businesses to offerdifferentiated or customizableproducts to suit differingtastes. And they will wantto control how much ofa product they purchase,including the length of servicecontracts.

For the financial servicessector, banks and creditunions will need to adaptmany traditional products andpractices to better appeal tothe tastes of post-recessionconsumers. Those tastesinclude more customizablepackages; access to trainedstaff at any time via anycommunications channel; andgreater day-to-day control oversavings and investments.The more uncertain ofthe future customers andmembers become, the morethey will demand short-termcontracts and dividends, andthe more control they willexpect from long-term ones.The greater the influence ofpeer-to-peer advice, the morefinancial institutions will needto interact with customersonline, including marketingvia e-mail and social media— and perhaps even postingunfiltered user reviews ontheir websites. Financialinstitutions will also benefitgreatly from offering unbiasedinformation and advice atevery point of consumerinteraction.

Providing such services whileretaining profitability will notbe easy. But it must be done.Not only will you attract moreconsumers by doing so, butit will keep them loyal byincreasing their confidencein your ability to help themmaintain control over theirfinancial affairs over the longterm.

Customers In Control? Falling consumer confidence is driving Americans towards greater self-reliance

2011-09-01T17:12:00.000+01:00

Interview with William Higham in 'Adweek'

"Spooked by the recession, consumers are looking for ways to take back the reins from institutions and brands alike. I've labeled this macro trend "control freaks."

"Falling consumer confidence is driving Americans towards greater self-reliance. The ABC News Consumer Comfort Index has remained below minus 40 for more than 100 weeks -- the worst levels on record. A recent Gallup poll for the Better Business Bureau found nearly half the consumers surveyed have just "some, very little or no trust at all" in the companies with which they do business.

"To limit the influence of institutions and brands, customers are taking greater charge over what, when, how and where they purchase or consume, wresting control from those they previously relied on. They're also exercising greater self-control, as they survey the problems their spending and borrowing levels have created.

"Additionally, they demand to browse, purchase from and communicate with brands using any channel that suits them, any time of day or night, and, thanks to the "media me" trend, are becoming their own program schedulers, news editors able to aggregate stories online and radio DJs via sources such as iTunes and Last FM.

"At the same time, the self-health trend sees more consumers determining their own well-being. More Americans now go online for medical advice on any given day than visit health professionals, according to the American Medical Association. Consequently the fastest-growing grocery brands are increasingly those perceived as healthy. Sales of self-diagnostics and books on topics like nutrition are rising. Retail sales of prescription drugs have soared: up 250 percent from 1995-2006, according to Census Bureau figures.

"Meanwhile, consumers are looking to limit their spending and borrowing. Today, 90 percent of Americans recognize the need to save more and spend less, up from less than three-quarters in 2008, according to research firm Technomic. Many under-35s I've spoken to recently are setting budgets and making financial to-do lists for the first time. High-end impulse purchasing seems in terminal decline.

"As well as helping themselves, consumers are helping each other. While trust in corporations is falling, trust among citizens is rising. According to an Econsultancy study last year, 90 percent of consumers online trust recommendations from people they know and 70 percent trust the opinions of unknown fellow users. The influence of peer-to-peer advice may overtake that of one-to-many marketing, from Amazon's reader reviews to travel recommendation sites like IGoUGo. Already 70 percent of Americans consult product reviews or consumer ratings before making a purchase, according to researchers Penn, Schoen & Berland Associates.

"The control freaks trend is set to grow. The more information consumers have at their fingertips, the greater their power. The Internet is a huge enabler, and increased Web access and the growth of mobile computing will empower them further. Nielsen says a quarter of Americans already own a smartphone, and sales will outstrip standard cell phones by late 2011. Add augmented reality and iPads, and the "consumer is king" trend seems increasingly like an understatement.

"There are no easy solutions for advertisers, but solutions will need to be found. The answer may lie in partnering with consumers via new permission marketing and socially networked models, and/or encouraging them to accept brands into their lives, by increasing incentivising, loyalty and smart targeting. One thing's for sure: able to access data and control purchasing like never before, American consumers will not return to the passive, top-down, brand-led model lovingly recreated in Mad Men and now increasingly looking like a distant fairy tale."

This articler was written by William Higham who is founder of market research and trend consultancy The Next Big Thing. He can be reached at william@next-big-thing.net.

[This article was published in AdWeek on 19th April 2010]

Pop Music as an Economic Indicator (William Higham interviewed by Patrick Tucker in 'The Futurist')

2011-06-16T17:09:00.000+01:00

Interview with William Higham in 'The Futurist'

That long hemlines accompany a bad economy is an old saying in the fashion industry. Today, most experts regard hemline theory as fanciful, but a number of social theorists agree that trends in fashion, movies, or music do reflect public sentiment, which can influence stock market direction. Theoretically at least, new fads could point to shifting economic conditions. But finding the exact correlation between changing music tastes and economic performance is anything but easy.

William Higham, author of 'The Next Big Thing: Spotting and Forecasting Consumer Trends for Profit' (Kogan Page, 2009), argues that the down economy and grumpy public sentiment forecasts an angry music wave in the coming year. However, economics is not the sole cause, says Higham. The next music fad will take more than one form, he believes.

“Consumers’ current mood, which blends confused, afraid, angry, and determined, is due to a mix of financial hardship, anger at being let down by politicians and big business, continuing fear of world events, the speed of technological/social change, and a reassessment of work/life priorities,” Higham told THE FUTURIST.

Jon P. Avlon, author of Independent Nation (Three Rivers Press, 2005), agrees that the public mood is bad and getting worse, and mainstream media will only exacerbate the grumpiness. The angry rhetoric rocking the airwaves and cable channels across the United States, the protestor clashes outside the Copenhagen Summit on Climate Change, and the Tea Party rallies that have lately sprung up in Washington, D.C., are a “reflection of a larger trend, the fragmentation of modern media, which has had an ironic effect on the way we get our information,” he wrote to THE FUTURIST. “The best ratings are achieved by [TV and radio] hosts who cultivate narrow but intense niche audiences. This has helped pump up the hate and hyper-partisanship we see today.”

Higham argues that previous eras of socioeconomic flux had two distinct and separate effects on pop culture. Mainstream music (which appeals more to baby boomers) became more quiet, subdued, and quaint, whereas “alternative” music, marketed primarily to younger people, became louder and more primal.

“Socioeconomic problems drove rock in the 1960s, heavy rock and punk in the 1970s, gangsta rap in the late 1980s, and grunge in the 1990s. So the new consumer mood will, I believe, drive a rise in both more aggressively patriotic mainstream roots music (the soundtrack to Tea Party anger) and more angry, dissonant Alternative music (the soundtrack to environmental protest),” he said.

Visible changes in fashion, television, movies, and particularly pop music can not only reflect a nation’s economic circumstances, but predict them as well, according to scholars with the Socionomics Institute.

In the October 2009 issue of The Socionomist, authors Matt Lampert and Euan Wilson claim that the commercial success of particular types of popular culture items — the music, movies, and TV shows that big-name clothiers and studios market to the public — can indicate stock market changes. When the public’s “social mood” and popular culture are both good, then upbeat or even vapid entertainment fare becomes the rage and the economy is likely in or about to enter a bullish cycle. Teen or tween pop acts such as the Jonas Brothers, Miley Cyrus, and High School Musical epitomized the bull market for stocks following the 2002 recession, say Lampert and Wilson. Supporting their theory, they point to the commercial success of 1980s bubblegum pop musicians such as Michael Jackson and Cyndi Lauper during a period of economic growth.

When both popular culture and social mood are down, movies, television, and music will trend toward the dark, gritty, dissatisfied, and potentially innovative; in a word, bearish. Lampert and Wilson attribute the rise of Seattle grunge aesthetic during the early 1990s to the recession that began in 1987, and the rise of punk rock in the mid-1970s to falling affluence and economic stagnation of that decade, particularly the 1970 to 1973 period.

A diminished stock market, high unemployment, and unprecedented government intervention that characterized the 2008 and 2009 economic environment portends terribly for social mood going forward. Recent poll numbers indicate as much. Some 55% of Americans think the country is on the wrong track, and 66% say that they aren’t confident that their children’s lives will be better than their own (as opposed to 27% who are confident), according to a Wall Street Journal/NBC poll from December. Yet, popular music in the United States remained “planted in bull territory” during this time. The disconnect suggests a pop culture lag. Forecast: Expect further stock market losses and a downbeat music wave.

“The continued reign of light popular music is an indicator that stocks are high, not low,” write Lampert and Wilson. “Coincident socioeconomic indicators convey compatible messages, and we can use one to validate the other.... At minimum, when social mood turns negative, lyrical themes will become dark and melody will diminish. Many performers who play discordant, experimental styles will find an audience. A genre even more aggressive than punk will ultimately emerge.”

Whether music is becoming angrier, lighter, more primal, or more quaint is no easy determination in an environment where cultural trends can be measured using an ever-wider array of metrics. And music fads will remain an imprecise (at best) indicator of stock market performance into the foreseeable future, according to other sociologists.

“I think there might be a correlation,” says Higham, “but it would be a brave man to bet [his] portfolio on a number one hit album.”

— Patrick Tucker

Sources: The Socionomist (October 2009), www.socionomics.net.

The Next Big Thing: Spotting and Forecasting Consumer Trends for Profit by William Highham. Kogan Page, 2009. 261 pages. $29.95.

[The above article was published today in 'The Futurist' magazine: the offical magazine of the World Future Society]

Trend Spotting On A Budget

2011-05-21T12:40:00.000+01:00

Article by William Higham in global innovation publication 'Cream'

What’s the use of trend forecasting? In a period of technological and socio-economic stability, companies can rely much more on traditional marketing practices. With customer attitudes and behaviours remaining relatively constant, companies can focus on the best ways to exploit current needs, rather than identifying and exploiting new o

nes.

But in a period of change such as we are going through now, identifying trends become vital. Traditional consumer markets can no longer be relied upon. Innovation is key, and survival increasingly rests on the whim of the consumer. Companies that continue to target the same market in the same way can find sales falling away, as that market develops new behaviours or new attitudes. Customers may decide they no longer need a product. Or they may want to purchase it in a different form, or on a different platform or via a different channel. Alternatively, consumers that previously had no interest in a product may become a potential market. The more volatile consumer markets are, the more important it is to determine the direction, or trend, in which customer attitudes or behaviours are moving.

Hang on, many managers argue, observing and integrating trends costs money: a resource that is in short supply today. Leaving aside the argument that, as so many experts are reminding us, investment and innovation are actually more important than ever in an economic downturn, the question remains as to how companies can introduce what I call ‘Trend Marketing’ without breaking the bank. As I explain in my new book ‘The Next Big Thing’, there are actually several low cost ways to observe new trends.

One way to identify a trend is to study changes in statistical patterns. Commissioning new quantitative surveys or buying them off the shelf will typically provide the most focused data. But not all statistical data needs to cost money. A careful search can provide much free information. Like a journalist, a Trend Marketer needs to keep a bank of key sources. Some of these will provide universal information. Others will be sector or market-specific. Government polls are a useful source of information. Adding your name to departmental mailing lists will provide free regular press releases that can provide strong statistical data. Readers’ polls in consumer magazines can sometimes offer useful insights, especially among younger audiences. Commercial companies often run polls, the top line results of which they are willing to share. Data about the sales of individual products and services can be obtained from a company’s annual report; and data on new products can be obtained from company press releases. Most research companies also offer some of their research for free in a section of their website.

The media is another important source of cheap desk research. Scanning the right media sources can help marketers to identify or verify the existence of a trend. It can also provide data that aids in establishing the future development of a trend. Again, it is essential to look outside of your own industry. One of the first things a Trend Marketer must do is establish a library of favoured media titles, both online and offline. This should include the most authoritative titles across all key influencer fields. These should be a mix of news and non-news, consumer and industry media. Trend consultants can recommend regular reading lists.

One cheap way to conduct primary research is to use your own consumers. Those with access to dynamic customer data can interrogate it to establish relevant behavioural patterns. Those without it can use other evidence of customer behaviour. Studying product sales data, for instance, can offer clues as to possible trends. If certain products are selling well, what is it about them that might be particularly popular in the current climate. If, say, your lightest and smallest products are selling, could this be because consumers are focusing on portability? If products in single colours are selling well, could that indicate a return to a more minimalist aesthetic?

Informal (‘observational’) primary research can help identify innovator or early adopter trends. Data on behavioural change gained via a conversation in a bar or the sighting of a new fashion style won’t provide robust evidence of a trend. But it might offer a stimulus to more formal research. For instance, Dave Capper, President of Lifestyle Music & Media at global toy manufacturer Hasbro, told me that the initial inspiration for the company’s hugely successful ‘U Dance’ toy actually came from observing children playing with musical instruments in a museum. To observe consumer behaviours effectively, trend marketers typically need to locate themselves in an environment where early adopters gather. Again, a trends consultant can recommend where to begin. The informal observation process will typically combine visual reportage and depth interviews. You can also utilise ‘virtual observation’: the study of consumer attitudes by monitoring conversations on forums, blogs and socials networks.

Observing individual consumers can be time-consuming of course. Studying or interrogating those who themselves observe trends can reduce the amount of time and money spent on physical observation. These include academics, journalists, entrepreneurs and market researchers. It can also be useful to attend trend-related formal events outside of your own industry. Trade fairs provide good opportunities to observe new or potential product-related trends, and to see what the industry in question believes will be of interest in the coming year. My favourites are those for the food, book, toy, interiors and car industries: I always return from these with new insights that I can feed into the mix.

Managers who don’t have time to study trends can encourage their staff to look out for them, rewarding those who suggest useable trends, perhaps by introducing a quarterly prize for the most interesting. To bring greater formality to the process, Trend Marketing tasks can be added to individual staff members’ job functions, and a specific amount of time set aside per day or week for observation.

Of course spotting trends is only part of the story. Effective Trend Marketing requires not just identification, but interpretation and implementation too. As I illustrate in the book, once you have identified a trend, you will need to interpret how it is likely to develop. You need to establish if it is relevant to your company; and if so, if it offers a threat or an opportunity. And you need to determine how to adapt strategy accordingly. But spotting a relevant new consumer trend early can certainly put you one step ahead of your competitors. And in an era of change such as we are living through, that can make all the difference.

William Higham is a trends consultant & author of ‘The Next Big Thing: Spotting & Forecasting Consumer Trends for Profit’ (Kogan Page)

[The above article first appeared on global innovation website Cream]

The Forecast Looks Bright: Successfully capitalising on trends boils down to establishing the right processes

2011-02-17T13:23:00.000+01:00

Article by William Higham in 'Quality World' Magazine

Trend forecasting is a comparatively new discipline and its proximity to the worlds of fads and fashion can make some people wary of its commercial effectiveness. But as an early warning of how market needs and behaviours are changing, and of the threats and opportunities they offer, it can provide genuine benefits, especially during times of flux. But what is the most effective way to do it?

Identifying changes in consumer behaviour early can be hugely beneficial. Missing them can be highly detrimental. It is especially important in times of socio-economic change such as today, where traditional consumer markets cannot necessarily be relied upon. Companies that continue to deliver the same products or use the same marketing methods can find sales falling away. Tomorrow’s customers may decide they no longer need a particular product or may want to purchase it in a different form, on a different platform or via a different channel. To succeed, companies need to identify potential changes, or trends, early enough to adapt strategies accordingly.

This is where trend forecasting comes in. The systematic analysis of consumer change patterns and cultural dynamics can help companies to make sense of their market in time of change. Yet simply including trends as and when they appear or tacking them on at the end of the product development or marketing process, common though it is, will rarely produce more than just “me too” policies. To deliver genuine benefits, the trend analysis process needs to be formalised, and recognised as an ongoing element of company policy.

The Process

The first step is the identification of trends. Effectiveness here is as much about where you look as how you look. In fact, the most effective trend-informed companies use a range of different research methods. Liisa Puolakka, head of brand identity at Nokia, believes combining different methodologies offers a “balanced view and helps you understand the trend better”. Hasbro’s hugely profitable U Dance toy, for instance, was inspired by informal observation, as was Vue cinemas’ successful campaign to attract older leisure consumers. In contrast, more formal, qualitative techniques have helped companies from Levis to Universal Music identify emerging trends.

Focused desk research can be a useful option for those with smaller budgets. It costs little to find statistics on the types of websites consumers are visiting, government figures on the number of teenagers doing part-time jobs or an article in the specialist press on the micro sourcing of dairy foods.

Whatever methods are used, what matters most is looking in the right places. Companies should, of course, study trends in their own sector. But it can also be beneficial to study trends in industries that have previously proved influential on that sector, as well as those that are traditionally strong trend incubators. For example, Nestle found success by looking at trends not just in food, but in fashion, technology, communication and architecture. Companies should scrutinise trends among their traditional customers, but it pays to study those who might become customers due to current trends. Smart marketers in the automotive and technology industries who spotted the boundary blurring trend in the 1990s, such as Ford and Motorola, studied trends not just in the youth and male markets but in the female and Grey markets too.

Before deciding how to act on a trend, its potential impact should be explored. Is it likely to affect young people only? Will it peak with the early mainstream or appeal to the laggards too? Will it just affect consumers in the food sector or might it spread into health, holidays and even finance? Once again, it is the instigation of a formal process that boosts effectiveness here. Each time a trend is found, it should be mapped against active (attribute) and passive (envirnomental) drivers.

For example, a trend might have certain qualities that make it easy for consumers to adopt it, such as simplicity, visibility or practicality. Or it might have qualities that appeal to basic consumer needs, such as value for money, safety or status. The more of these it has, the faster and wider it will spread. At the same time, the current socio-economic environment might either be a driver or a barrier to adoption of the trend. Online social networking was a highly visible, easy to pass on trend that appeared at just the time when consumers were looking for low cost ways to socialise. It was no surprise that it grew.

The final step is to turn trend analysis into a practical business strategy. Effectiveness here is again more about ensuring the process is formalised, than about which particular process to choose. It is typically “better as a debate than a monologue”, as Annie Freel, head of knowledge for McCain Foods says, and some form of communal workshop is common.

Different companies use different formats. However, the best will share a broadly similar analytical approach. Establish a business question, assemble the trends most relevant to it, analyse them to determine what effect they might have, then establish what to do in response. Companies can take a company-centric or trend-centric approach to determining trend implications. In the former they will consider current company policy or a key business question and map a shortlist of relevant trends against it in a trend audit. Companies taking a trend-centric approach will study a shortlist of individual trends to determine the opportunities or threats that each presents. This can be done using innovation workshops or scenario planning. McCain Foods, for instance, runs regular “think days” that inspired their “it’s all good” campaign. Carat’s successful “scenic days out” advertising campaign for Renault also came from trend-centric research.

Benefits

If the right process is put in place, trend data can provide real advantages. Responding to the wellbeing trend helped improve Pepsi’s marketing and acquisitions policies, driving its share price above Coca-Cola’s for the first time ever. Tapping into a renewed family fun trend drove sales of the Nintendo Wii above the PS3 and Xbox 360.

Formalised trend data can be used to improve decision-making. According to a recent study , only 56% of products are typically still on the market five years after launch. But companies can drastically reduce failure rates for new products, services or marketing campaigns if they know at the planning stage how consumers will be thinking and behaving at launch. Coca-Cola’s first long-term new product success in recent years, the male-friendly diet drink Zero, was based on an identification of the “gender blending” trend. When it comes to demand, trends can warn companies of shrinking markets, or offer opportunities to target brand new ones. The “gender blending” trend also enabled Nivea and L’Oreal to successfully market skincare products to the male market.

Product and packaging design too can be improved. Trends for greater mobility or convenience drive demand for smaller products, materialist or cocooning trends the purchase of larger products. Meanwhile, stylish or cutting edge packaging succeeds when status or risk-taking trends are on the rise. In contrast, nostalgic or “authentic” packaging is more popular during traditionalist or provenance cycles and economic downturns. It is no surprise that manufacturers from Heinz to Premier Foods have found huge success with traditional packaging recently.

Trends can affect all aspects of promotion such as media, channel, tone and placement choice. Here some implications will be obvious. Identifying a trend among customers for increasing e-commerce will recommend greater marketing spend online. Other implications may be less obvious. If consumers are spending more time in social networks, the role of friendship and trust will change, so they may respond better to word of mouth and advocacy campaigns or a more communal brand message. Trends can also prove a highly valuable tool for public relations campaigns. By identifying and aligning themselves with new trends, a brand gains not only useable strategic insights for internal use but a strong media story as well. This can be particularly useful for financial clients.

Trends can affect consumer purchase points therefore altering preferences for channel, design, location and inventory. They can also impact price. As the economic situation fluctuates, consumers typically move from value-driven trends to values-driven ones and back. In the former, price is usually the key driver of purchase. But in the latter, issues such as authenticity and provenance become stronger.

Challenges

Successful trend forecasting is not without its challenges. For instance, the importance of timing has to be remembered. Many people assume that the earlier you act on a trend, the better. However, acting on a trend too early is just as dangerous as doing so too late. It is clearly a mistake to base a one-year strategy on a trend that will not reach the target market for two years.

Another problem is getting trend data recognised internally. Unless company staff can be convinced of the validity of a new trend, any efforts to benefit from it are likely to fail. Trend-based change needs to be seen throughout the company as a good thing. Individuals and departments should be free to offer and pursue new ideas with a chance of recognition and no fear of reprisals. Trend data should be distributed across departments. The knowledge department at McCain Foods sends out monthly trend reports. Nestle’s consumer excellence team distributes “manifestation reports” globally every three to six months, featuring trends from around the world, to “inspire and excite marketing and sales”.

Companies of all sizes can benefit from trends. Effective trend analysis is as much about establishing an efficient process as it is about diverting budgets. Even the smallest company should be able to afford low-level research, perhaps encouraging staff to look for new trends. But whoever carries out the research and at whatever level it is carried out, what matters most is that it is incorporated into a company’s formal business process. If that is done, and company culture adapted accordingly, the benefits of picking up on new trends can be enormous

Keys to British business success

2010-08-18T10:11:00.000+01:00

Feature in The Independent on HSBC/Next Big Thing's 'The Great British Business Report'

Clogau Gold of Wales has been adaptable from the moment it started, two decades ago. Managing director Ben Roberts says it started by accident after his father, William, bought a gold mine in the Snowdonia National Park.

Having retired relatively young after selling a frozen food business, Roberts was looking for something to do and thought he could turn the mine into a tourist attraction. However, the location of the business within the national park meant that there was great resistance to the idea and he was forced to change his plans. His next idea was to reactivate the mine, with the intention of producing jewellery made out of Welsh gold. The fact that the mine had traditionally supplied the gold used in Royal Family wedding rings was seen as a selling point. Originally, the company sold a few novelty items through a few local outlets.

But several years ago the company decided to transfer its manufacturing overseas and concentrate on sales and marketing. “Suddenly, capacity was no longer an issue,” says Roberts. The result has been rapid growth – to the point where Clogau Gold products are stocked in 140 outlets in Wales and 500 around the rest of Britain and the business, which this year will have sales of about £7.5m and employ about 45 people, was last year shortlisted for a national award. Meanwhile, the jewellery – which uses an element of the very rare Welsh gold – is now more contemporary and has also been in contention for national awards.

The history of Morgan Motor Company goes back rather further, but it has survived through a similar willingness to be adaptable. The company – which is still based in Malvern Link, Worcestershire – began in 1910 after founder HFS Morgan had earlier been involved in the locomotive and bus businesses. The first vehicles were three-wheeled, single-seater runarounds. Then came the famous, wooden-framed four-wheelers in two-seat and four-seat versions, which retained their old-fashioned style long after the shape and fittings of other cars changed. However, the company – which remains a family business headed by Charles Morgan – has lately adapted to the times, producing more modern looking vehicles, such as the Aero, which retain the company’s commitment to handcrafting and to quality. It is also soon introducing an electric car with a range of 1,000 miles.

Morgan says the company has been able to use such government initiatives as the research and development tax credit scheme – which enables the cost of R&D to be defrayed against taxes on future profits – and the Knowledge Transfer Partnership - under which the Government has paid a percentage of the salaries of five graduate engineers – to assist with investment in design and engineering.

The company has a long tradition of obtaining engines and other components from other companies, enabling it to concentrate on its core skills of design and assembly. It is also a committed exporter, with 70 per cent of its cars going overseas, with continental Europe its biggest market.

Morgan says that the company produces about 850 cars a year, compared with 3,000 for Aston Martin and 5,000 for Bentley. But he stresses that the company will not be drawn into making more than it can sell. “It’s a bespoke product that we make for you,” he adds.

Both Clogau and Morgan are cited by HSBC Commercial Banking as examples of how British businesses have traditionally thrived through being innovative – not just in terms of the products they invent and develop but in how they operate.

Indeed, it says the report it has produced with trends researchers The Next Big Thing indicates that British businesses are once more poised to capitalise on and adapt the core qualities, such as enterprise, innovation and adaptability, that have historically driven the country’s business success. The Great British Business report finds that, as has happened following previous downturns, new business trends and ways of working are developing in post-recession Great Britain. It predicts that future success will be driven by thinking businesses, those that recapture the essence of British entrepreneurialism, and put innovation and adaptability at the heart of their company.

The report finds that the qualities current business leaders cite as central to historical British business success – including innovation (44 per cent), the ability to trade internationally (33 per cent), entrepreneurialism (33 per cent) and adaptability (26 per cent) – remain true today.

As the face of British business changes at an accelerated pace over the next five years, the report predicts that successful UK companies will adopt and adapt core strengths and make them relevant to today and tomorrow. Indeed, the 500 respondents questioned said that the two most important qualities for British companies in the future are going to be the ability to innovate (51 per cent) and adaptability (43 per cent). The report says: “Tomorrow’s successful business person will actually need many of the same qualities that have made British business great in the past.”

Noel Quinn, group general manager at HSBC Commercial Banking, says that the current environment is obviously challenging but that many businesses appear to be more positive than the general sentiment. Although the recent downturn has been more severe that those previously, there have been fewer corporate failures – largely because businesses have been in better shape than they were before the earlier recessions. Obviously, low interest rates have helped, but businesses had lower borrowings and there was good quality of management, he said.

In addition, the relative weakness of sterling was helping exports. On top of this, though, he saw a greater willingness to make the effort required to succeed in exporting, which fits in with the report’s findings about Britain’s success in trade.

He points to how he came across a company involved in the construction industry that saw its domestic turnover decline by 90 per cent. Exports already accounted for about 40 per cent of sales, but “it moved into markets that it probably would not have gone into” and was able to make up the complete shortfall in domestic turnover through exports. As a result, when the recovery comes it will receive a double boost.

Report urges British business to “recapture entrepreneurialism”

2010-08-06T10:18:00.000+01:00

Interview with William Higham in 'EN - The Magazine For Entrepreneurs'

The qualities that make a business leader great are the same now as they were in the 19th Century, according to a business report that predicts the country’s future success will be driven by businesses that recapture entrepreneurialism.

The Great British Business report, from HSBC Commercial Banking and trends researchers The Next Big Thing, investigates how UK plc (and SME) has evolved over time and identifies what businesspeople of today and tomorrow can learn from history.

It finds that the qualities current business leaders cite as central to historical British business success – including innovation (44 per cent), the ability to trade internationally (33 per cent), entrepreneurialism (33 per cent) and adaptability (26 per cent) – remain constant today.

The report states: “Tomorrow’s successful business person will actually need many of the same qualities that have made British business great in the past.

“Economic crises can act as a wake-up call.”,

It predicts that in times of unprecedented technological change, traditional business and revenue streams will be continually disrupted and so smart businesspeople will need to always have one eye on the future and adapt their businesses to capitalise on this change. But it forecasts that the growing importance of adaptability is likely to be good news for British businesses, which already recognise it as an area of strength.

Two thirds (61 per cent) of respondents consider their own companies to be good at adaptability/flexibility and more than four out of five (84 per cent) respondents see technological change as a positive factor going forward.

Noel Quinn, HSBC head of commercial banking UK, said: “Our report shows that the qualities that have made the nation’s businesses successful in the past are the foundations for a great British business future. Britain has established a business heritage to be proud of.

William Higham, trends expert and author of the report, said: “For much of the 19th Century, Great Britain was arguably the strongest economic power in the world. Today British businesses rank among the biggest in the world and many stand as examples of the best that business has to offer. British companies played a key role in the development of the international economy throughout history and this role looks set to continue throughout the 21st Century.”

British Firms Primed For Great Business Future

2010-07-21T10:21:00.000+01:00

Interview with William Higham in 'Fresh Business Thinking' magazine

British businesses are set for success, retaining the core qualities which drove our nation’s historical economic achievements and adapting them for the future. The Great British Business report finds that, as has happened following previous downturns, new business trends and ways of working are developing in post-recession Great Britain. It predicts that future success will be driven by thinking businesses, those that recapture the essence of British entrepreneurialism, and put innovation and adaptability at the heart of their company.

The report, from HSBC Commercial Banking and trends researchers The Next Big Thing, investigates how UK plc (and small and medium enterprise (SME)) has evolved over time and identifies what businesspeople of today and tomorrow can learn from history. It finds that the qualities current business leaders cite as central to historical British business success — including innovation (44 per cent), the ability to trade internationally (33 per cent), entrepreneurialism (33 per cent) and adaptability (26 per cent) — remain constant today.

As the face of British business changes at an accelerated pace over the next five years, the report identifies that successful UK companies will adopt and adapt core strengths and make them relevant to today and tomorrow.

Indeed the 500 respondents questioned said that the two most important qualities for British companies going forward are the ability to innovate (51 per cent) and adaptability (43 per cent), with the report summarising that: “Tomorrow’s successful business person will actually need many of the same qualities that have made British business great in the past.”

Enterprising Entrepreneurialism

o Report predicts embracing UK’s entrepreneurial spirit will drive future success

o Employees to adopt "entrepreneurial mindset"; adapting and innovating at a faster pace

Embracing the UK’s entrepreneurial spirit will be key for future business success; both as individual businesspeople start their own ventures and for employees in larger corporations which the future necessitates will be required to change at a faster pace, spotting opportunities, adapting and innovating. Companies of all sizes will benefit from adopting an "entrepreneurial mindset" where they "view challenges and change as opportunities to be grasped, and are unafraid to adapt their traditional business practices in whichever way necessary to take advantage of them."

A third of the business leaders polled (33 per cent), believe today’s British businesses especially excel at entrepreneurialism and 32 per cent said their company had a strong entrepreneurial spirit. This will stand today’s businesses in good stead, according to the report: “In times of rapid technological and socio-eco

nomic change, entrepreneurs become an increasingly important part of the economy.” From Thomas Lipton launching Lipton’s Tea in the ‘Age of the Empire’ to John Reith founding the BBC in the ‘Age of Electricity’, entrepreneurs have always been critical to developing and reshaping the UK’s economy.

Innovating Innovation

o Report predicts Britain’s innovation skills are “not limited to inventions”

o Critical to put innovative thinking at the core of business

Part of this entrepreneurial approach includes having an innovative mindset and the report predicts the renewed importance of this historical trend and quality. 49 per cent of business leaders claim they have been proactively innovating in the last year. It found that while Britain has historically been known as a nation of innovators, with home-grown inventions from the Spinning Jenny to the Steam Engine, Britain’s innovation skills are “not limited to inventions.” In particular, “hidden innovation”, which is putting innovative thinking at the core of businesses, will be critical for the future. An example is Karen McQuade of The UK Foodhall, whose success came not from inventing the piece of processing equipment which opened up a new business opportunity, but her ability to introduce it to a new audience and act upon it.

Adapting Adaptability

o Report predicts smart businesspeople will need to always have one eye on the future and adapt their businesses

As times change, so too must business. As the report summarises: “Economic crises can act as a wake-up call.” It predicts that in our times of unprecedented technological change, traditional business and revenue streams will be continually disrupted and so smart businesspeople will need to always have one eye on the future and adapt their businesses to capitalise on this change. But it forecasts that the growing importance of adaptability is likely to be good news for British businesses, which already recognise it as an area of strength. Two thirds (61 per cent) of respondents consider their own companies to be good at adaptability/flexibility and more than four out of five (84 per cent) respondents see technological change as a positive factor going forward.

Noel Quinn, HSBC head of commercial banking UK, said: “Our report shows that the qualities that have made the nation’s businesses successful in the past are the foundations for a great British business future. Britain has established a business heritage to be proud of and we are working closely with companies across the UK to continue this story going forward, helping businesses to make the most of opportunities to trade in domestic and international markets. So far this year we have helped an average of 2,600 businesses start up every week and we’re seeing a significant increase in export activity. We also recently launched Business Thinking 2010, an initiative to support and fund the UK’s most innovative and forward thinking companies.”

William Higham, trends expert and author of the Great British Business report, said: “For much of the 19th Century, Great Britain was arguably the strongest economic power in the world. Today British businesses rank among the biggest in the world and many stand as examples of the best that business has to offer. British companies played a key role in the development of the international economy throughout history and this role looks set to continue throughout the 21st Century.”

HSBC Commercial Banking has launched a new initiative to help support and fund the UK’s most innovative and forward thinking companies. ‘Business Thinking 2010’ will give companies across the UK the opportunity to win a share in £90 million worth of funding, a financial reward of up to £100,000 each and an overseas Thought Exchange Trip for networking and business development. Interested companies should log onto www.hsbc.co.uk/businessthinking to register interest and receive an application form.

To download a copy, click here.

Book Review: 'The Next Big Thing'

2010-06-08T11:25:00.000+01:00

A review of 'The Next Big Thing' in India's national daily newspaper 'The Hindu'

How do trends spread? Through the process of trend diffusion, says William Higham in ‘The Next Big Thing’ (www.vivagroupindia.com). In scientific usage, diffusion is the process whereby liquids or gases intermingle and move from an area of high concentration to an area of lower concentration, he explains. Likewise, “when people who have adopted trends mingle with those who have not, the trends move from a small concentrated group to a broader mainstream.”

At the start of the process are the innovators, the very first people to adopt a new behaviour or attitude. “Professional innovators range from filmmakers to product designers. Amateur innovators are those individuals who enjoy creating for its own sake outside of their working lives.”

Innovators are generally individualistic, are unafraid of the negative opinions of others, enjoy novelty and are less afraid of uncertainty, the author describes. “They may be naturally curious, so try something new just to see what it is like. They may get bored easily, so seek a rapid turnover of new experiences or products; they may simply have a natural aversion to the status quo; or they might like the status that comes with trend creation.”

Next in the hierarchy are the early adopters, who share many traits with innovators. However, the early adopters may not always be driven by curiosity or novelty. “They might have the money to try new things or the contacts to obtain them gratis. For instance, the rich or those within the technology industries will be the first to obtain technology products.”

Early adopters may be the very young or the very old, because they have the time to try something new, which may take many hours to practise or understand. Or, they may simply have a greater need for a new product or service than anyone else, says Higham. “For instance, those who are busy are likely to trial a time-saving product before those who are not.”

Diffusion then reaches the mainstream, which is divided into the early and the late stages. Early mainstream adopters pick up a trend before the majority of consumers do, and they are the individuals whom the late mainstream turns to for advice on new products or services. “In any market, only a few friendship groups will include an early adopter, but the vast majority of them will include at least one member of the early mainstream.”

Since the early mainstream takes a practical approach to innovations, and therefore typically deliberates for a long time before deciding whether to adopt a trend, the transition from early adopters to this stage can be a difficult one, the author observes. “Once a trend reaches them, it can offer genuine strategic opportunities.”

Late mainstream consumers, who make up the majority in any market, prefer to feel completely comfortable with and certain about an innovation before adopting it, says Higham. “The group is heavily influenced by media, societal and peer pressure. The gap between adoption by the early and late mainstream can be lengthy.”

Last in the list are the laggards, the traditionalist consumers who are the least interested in change and the most risk-averse, and to whom many trends never reach, as the book outlines. For example, “there are still many in even the most developed territories who do not have access to the Internet… Over 50,000 Britons still watch black-and-white television.”

Looking at alternatives approaches to the way trends spread – such as trickle-down (moving down through society from one level to another); innovation diffusion (that is, trickling ‘through’ a society or community rather than ‘down’ it); networks and trendsetters (with the spread occurring through the interaction of all the members of a network) – the author proposes ‘multi-driver diffusion’ as a good approach for a trend marketer. That can be an inclusive, holistic approach, taking the best from each theory, he argues.

Recommended addition to the trend-watchers’ shelf.

Book Review: 'The Next Big Thing'

2010-05-04T17:37:00.000+01:00

A review of 'The Next Big Thing' in 'Insitute For Future Insights' website

Originally I bought this book hoping to find loads of new trends affecting consumers. There are a couple indeed, but the book is more about understanding the nature of trends, where they originate from, how they grow and, perhaps more importantly, how to build a process in the company in order to assess these trends and make decisions based on them.

Perfect! I got much more than I expected !

The book starts with a couple of examples of consumer trends, which Highan often provides with a compelling name: boundary blurring (consumers are active participants in the market), gender blurring, ‘trading up’ (H&M asking Karl Lagerfeld to make a collection, Carlsberg exclusive ‘900’ brand), ‘Come together’, etc.

Highman then develops an argument for a ‘trend marketer’ function within a company (not only responsible for trend spotting, but also decision making and implementation). The idea is appealing, and I’d certainly apply for any such job –although it’s in fact another name for 50% of what I’m doing in my current role.The main part of the book, however, is dedicated to understanding the nature of trends:

How they start: pretty much –a bit to my surprise- a matter of PESTEL factors (Political, Economical; Societal; etc.). I say to my surprise, since I do think that with that the author omits the Psychological factor, though he might argue that this factor is dependent on all the other PASTEL factors. We could argue for years before getting clear with that one…;
Sorts of trends: behavioral vs. attitudinal; micro vs macro trends; … I’m thinking of developing a classification of trends myself, though Higham gives a good basis, I do think it can do with some more granularity.;
Where trends occur;
How to collect trends;
How trends spread (opinion formers; 6 degrees; etc);
Mapping trends: Causal analysis / assistance attribute / needs attribute / passive drivers… a very good aid to assess trends!
How to draw conclusions and decisions based on the work above: ‘trend audits’, innovation workshops and scenario planning..
Though here and there the ideas might feel a bit light (the chapter on ‘how to collect trends’, for instance, doesn’t go much further than basic research), the beauty of this book resides in the fact that all these ideas taken together, they form a pretty solid process with which companies can deal and benefit from the trend-marketer exercise.

Pretty compelling and convincing at the end.

The appendix is worth mentioning: Highan explains the full process he himself has gone through (or helped with) in discovering and assessing three major consumer trends: ‘traditionalizing ‘(how people get back to more traditional ways of living); ‘come together’ (where people will increasingly look for ways to meet and share events ‘live’) and ‘the new old’ and ‘the new old’ (changing spending patterns of ageing society –well, after all not changing at all).

All in all a very enriching read.

Book Review: 'The Next Big Thing'

2010-03-18T09:48:00.000+01:00

Review of 'The Next Big Thing' in 'Business Pundit'.

Sometimes I dream of leaving it all behind. Ditching the laptop and mortgage payments. Moving to a farm, maybe raising chickens.The closest I come to actually doing this is virtual farming virtually via MMOGs (massively multiplayer online games). Hey, you gotta start somewhere.In a trend marketer’s view, I’m actually fantasizing about Traditionalizing (going back the tradition). Instead of acting on my fantasy, however, I am Gender Blending (playing video games, traditionally a male past time) and Coming Together (playing video games in a group).Long before I started yearning for tradition or playing MMOGs, someone discovered that these sentiments were, in fact, widespread trends. They analyzed those trends. They helped companies build a strategy around them, so that those companies can now target people like me with relevant products. Meanwhile, the same trend marketers are busy uncovering next year’s trends.William Higham is one such trend marketer. In The Next Big Thing: Spotting and Forecasting Consumer Trends for Profit, he has written what could be the definitive guide for companies seeking to find and exploit consumer trends.

Content

The book is divided into six very rich parts. Here’s a brief summary:

Part 1: Covers what trends are (long-term changes in consumer behavior), how they impact global commerce, and the opportunities and threats they present to a company.
Part 2: Describes what trend analysis is, why you need it, and how to formalize it into a trend marketing function.
Part 3: Details the forces that cause trends and where they happen. It educates you on the difference trends and fads.
Part 4: Teaches you how and where to identify trends.
Part 5: Tells you who creates trends, how they progress, what trends grow fastest, what influences the trajectory of a trend, and how to predict the development of a trend.
Part 6: Instructs how to integrate trends into your company strategy.

As the summary above may indicate, The Next Big Thing is a very detailed book. Yet that detail reflects depth rather than digression. Higham leaves you with a comprehensive understanding, not just an overview, of trends.

Comments

Throughout the book, Higham uses an impressive number of examples to support his points. He integrates his encyclopedic knowledge of trends and branding into a story of what trends are, how they work, and how companies can harness them. You learn about the contexts trends operate in. Instead of being a vaguely defined mystery, trends become something more predictable, more of a science.Even the drier parts of the book–there were several–held gems. For example, there is a chapter devoted exclusively to using statistical data. That’s not very exciting, but, among other things you do learn how to recognize when marketers are manipulating data for their own advantage.

Why I recommend this book

Our world today is crowded and wired. We cycle through trends rapidly, making it hard for companies to stay informed enough to remain competitive. Even so, the study of trends is still a very new discipline, outside of fashion. This is the first book to break them down into understandable parts.In addition, you learn to see things through a trend expert’s eyes. When I was reading the book, the knitting clubs and plate-breaking cafe I’ve come across started to make sense. They weren’t anomalies. They were signs of widespread trends. Even human history and culture starts to take on a different hue through a trend analyst’s eyes. This new perspective, along with the thoroughness of the book, made The Next Big Thing a truly valuable read.

If you need to understand and incorporate trends into your business, want to understand how trends work, or simply enjoy a well-researched book on a fascinating subject, do not miss The Next Big Thing.

Seven Ways To Spot The Next Big Thing

2010-01-22T11:41:00.008+01:00

Interview with William Higham in 'Management Today'

Seven ways to spot the next big thing: How can you get ahead of the curve and start spotting trends before they happen

By Alexander Garrett

The world is changing fast but your firm seems constantly to react after the event. New year, new decade: an opportune moment to find ways of spotting trends before they happen and to move ahead of the curve?

1. Understand what trends are...
'A trend is a change in consumer attitudes or behaviours,' says William Higham, author of The Next Big Thing and founder of consultancy www.next-big-thing.net. 'The reason you want to predict trends is so your products, services, and the channels and attitudes you use in communication, all tie in with these changes.' Micro-trends are short-term changes; mega-trends are long-term ones.

2. ... and what they're not.
Fads are short-lived products and behaviours that are often driven by marketing; think Cabbage Patch dolls. They might give a clue to an underlying trend, though. If in doubt, are there data to measure the change?

3. What are you looking for?
'First step is to define what drivers are relevant to your business - what behaviours in the world are crucial to your business doing well,' says Magnus Lindkvist, founder of Stockholm-based Pattern Recognition (www.patternrecognition.se). 'When these have been identified, start experimenting with tracking trends you think might be affecting your business - there are often surprising connections between widely differing areas.'

4. Watch the big picture.
'Macro trends tend to dictate our environment, often in a broad, sweeping way,' says Reinier Evers of consultancy Trendwatching (www.trendwatching.com). 'Big technological, political, environmental, economic and societal changes will trump consumer trends, which in turn trump industry trends.'

5. Seek far and wide.
Don't just look inside your own industry. 'Many trends start in fashion, design and technology-based industries,' notes Higham. Look at media, competitors, research studies, government data, online chat and your own customers for the fullest possible data. Tap into a trend-spotting network. Simple, visible, cash-saving trends are more likely to last, he adds.

6. See beyond the headline.
We all have access to the same information, says Lindkvist; the key is to find messages behind the data without losing yourself in meaningless noise. 'Companies and individuals that add their own perspective and interpretation to a trend make something unique out of it.'

7. Create an innovation culture.
Your staff must welcome change. 'Start a trend group,' says Evers. Convene regular sessions to brainstorm trends and their implications in different parts of the business; focus on one trend and get everyone to come up with ideas for products, business concepts, a change of vision or just the tone of your advertising. Offer rewards for the best ideas.

Do say: 'To survive in a fast-changing world, we must be continually re-thinking our strategies and offerings. To do that, we need to identify changes as early as possible.'

Don't say: 'Nah - I can't see a lot happening in the next few years.'

Seven Consumer Trends that Define Business in the “New Normal”

2010-01-21T10:34:00.004+01:00

Interview with William Higham in CEO publication 'Vistage' by Paul Diamond, Manager Base Communications, Vistage International

“Business as usual” is undergoing a transformation brought on by changing consumer tastes and dramatic economic pressures. Companies now have to find new ways to appeal to consumers scarred by the recent economic crisis. These consumers spend less and save more; many are jobless, many lack trust in businesses, and many expect the government to provide a high level of service.

Business operations are under numerous other pressures, including constrained credit, economic uncertainty, threat of increased inflation, excessive consolidation in many industries, the rapid pace of innovation, rising commodity prices and a constant pressure to do things better, faster

and cheaper.

The 7 trends detailed below are opportunities you can seize to give your customers more of what they want.

Trend 1: Short-Termism
The financial crisis that brought us to the brink of monetary end-times made consumers realize that governments, institutions and even brands don’t have a good sense of the future—and they certainly can’t control a quickly developi

ng crisis. Consumers have become fearful of what might happen next, and they no longer trust that enterprises operate towards a stable, long-term future.

“People are thinking more about the here and now, and less about things that may or may not last a long time,” says noted trend analyst William Higham, author of The Next Big Thing—Spotting & Forecasting Consumer Trends for Profit.

“This sentiment leads us to buy based on our immediate needs. It also makes us want to take greater responsibility for ourselves across a range of sectors, rather than relying on media, politicians, professionals or brands, who we feel have let us down. For example, we are increasingly self-diagnosing and self-treating; scheduling media at the times we want; and making our own playlists rather than buying new compilation albums.”

Additionally, people now understand that the pace of innovation rapidly outdates expensive technology purchases. The relative usefulness of smart phones, navigation systems, laptops, software, and televisions lasts no more than a year, sometime only months. When it comes to new technology purchases, consumers have learned to adopt a “wait-and-see” attitude.

Trend 2: Brand Aid
Companies are now building brand loyalty by helping their consumers navigate through today’s complexities and difficulties.

“These brands want to be seen as helping consumers through life,” said Higham.

Brand aid typically takes the form of advice, information or free services provided to the public. Examples include:

Microsoft: Publishes a free online magazine, Home, offering unbiased Internet guidanceCharmin: Offers free public restrooms for shoppers in New York’s Times Square during the holiday seasonEvy Baby: This diaper company places branded changing rooms in Turkish shopping mallsAmerican Express: Created openforum.com to help business owners find successHigham thinks the trend will expand to an entirely new aid market: “Tomorrow’s consumers will pay a premium for brands that help them avoid activities that are either difficult, time consuming or unpleasant. This will be a particularly strong driver in the luxury sector, as definitions of luxury evolve from ostentation to experience and more recently convenience and privilege.”

Trend 3: Conscious Consumerism
You know those people who buy something only if it’s organic, eco-friendly or made locally? Soon most of us will make our purchases based on such highly selective, specific criteria.

“Companies should think about their consumers in terms of what, why and how they purchase,” says Higham. Impulse buying is waning, giving way to purchases that are driven by enduring core values. “With less money to spend, there will be a reduction in impulse purchasing and a growth in conscious consumption: where individuals limit purchases to products that matter to them. Brands will increasingly need to provide a meaningful reason for consumers to buy their products: from strong aesthetics to durability, heritage to sustainability. And they will need to target their products more specifically to particular attitudinal and needs segments.”

Trend 4: Simplification
One of the key trends of the 2000s was the growth of choice. But a backlash has begun, as more and more consumers suffer choice fatigue. “Consumers will increasingly seek, not unlimited choice, but an edited choice,” says Higham.

Simplification creates three distinct marketplace opportunities for nimble companies, including:

• Recommendation as a service: Recommendations and shortlists of options that give us the right choice rather than an abundance of choices will become increasingly popular. Additionally, products that reduce the need to make a choice will benefit from this trend.

• Single-occasion products: Certain single-occasion products such as birthday cakes, wedding gowns and event insurance have long been with us. Now companies are elevating daily activities into occasions that pair with their products. “You can buy bottles of wine made to be drunk with specific dishes like fish or chicken; or coffee brands that are made to be drunk at specific times of the day.” This pairing serves to simplify choice.

• Multi-use products: “If you own a single device that acts as phone, camera and music player, you don’t need to decide which of several single-use products to take with you when going out.” Multi-use products are marginalizing certain types of single-use products.

Trend 5: Mobile Purchasing
Cell phones are becoming virtual credit cards and mobile credit-card processing terminals. In Japan and Sweden, consumers have long been using cell phones to make purchases. “Mobile purchasing answers a real need in marketing—closing the deal conveniently,” says Philippe Cesson, Vistage speaker and president of Cesson 3.0, a social media and training company.

“Just as customers embraced online shopping for its convenience, they will also embrace mobile purchasing.” The U.S. has been slow to adopt the technology, but currently has four forms of mobile phone transaction in use, and these may become widely adopted, though who knows which technology will ultimately prevail. The four models for cell-phone transactions are:

• Swipe your phone: Customers can securely swipe their cell phone and use it just like a credit card, making for a quicker transaction. Businesses can use this technology to gain more sales and increased conversion. One provider, BlingNation, is spreading this technology via community banks, which provide local merchants with a phone-swipe terminal and checking-account customers with a small adhesive tag that sticks to the back of their phone. Swipe the tag over the terminal to make a purchase. The transactions are processed directly by a local bank which results in lower fees than merchants normally pay for credit card transactions. This system is currently being tested in two Colorado towns. It appears to be work well for high-volume, lowprice purchases.

• Accept payments with your phone: You can now buy a small card reader made by SquareUp that hooks to your iPhone, Android or Blackberry. When a customer wants to buy something from you, they simply swipe their credit card through this gadget connected to your phone, then they sign their name on your phone, and the transaction is complete. You can also email a receipt to the buyer. This solution works well for traditional businesses that want to sell items off-location at trade shows or festivals, and for consultants, one-person businesses, or artisans who want to accept payment by credit card but either can’t get a merchant account or don’t want one because of the fees. With this service you don’t need a merchant account and there are no contracts or monthly fees. The cost per transaction hasn’t been disclosed yet.

This service, which aims to be available in Q2 2010, is brought to you by the people who invented Twitter—expect it to be highly disruptive to traditional merchant accounts.

• Enter your phone number online: Customers shopping online can enter their cell phone number to check out and pay. They must reply to a text message sent by the site to complete the transaction. The customer then pays the charge on their monthly cell phone bill. Using a cell phone number is a lot quicker and easier than entering credit card and address info online, and it appeals to younger people and those who may not have a credit card. What’s the rub? The transaction fee is painful—as a merchant you must give 35 to 50 percent of the sale price to the mobile carrier that processes the transaction. These fees may drop in time.

• Transfer money via cell phone: You can now transfer cash via text message. Both the sender and recipient need to register for a free account with a provider such as

Obopay.com; once that’s set up, sending money costs 25–50 cents per transaction, and the money can go directly from and to bank accounts. For small business owners it’s an easy, inexpensive way to send or collect payment overseas. Wave goodbye to the fees, long forms and bank visits associated with wiring money.

These nascent mobile commerce platforms will likely battle it out, VHS-vs-Betamax style, while most of us will be on the sidelines with a wait-and-see attitude. Forward-thinking companies should dive in now, even if they risk adopting a platform that goes the way of Betamax.

“Payment by cell phone empowers merchants to conduct business everywhere and at anytime,” says Cesson. “One consequence of this technology is that it opens up every social interaction to potentially become a sales interaction.”

Trend 6: Collective Intelligence
“We are now creating a collective intelligence that will filter and respond to what’s worthwhile,” says futurist Ross Dawson.

What does collective intelligence mean for the average business owner? It’s the opportunity to distill the “wisdom of the crowd” in a quick, cost- effective manner and get solutions for your pressing business issues. Here are some examples:

• Crowdsourcing: When you broadcast a request for work you need done and people online willingly help, that’s “crowdsourcing.” For example, say you need to name a new product or want to rename your company. Go to the site namethis.com and post your request. Users of the site will offer names and vote on them. Once submissions are in, you pick the one you like best. It costs $99 to harness the crowd’s brain—significantly less than recruiting the services of a branding agency—and the money goes to the person who picked the best name. Here are 10 crowdsourcing sites explained.

• Freelancers on demand: “You can now access the best talent from around the globe to work on your projects,” says Dawson, who points to sites such as elance.com, odesk.com, freelancer.com and rentacoder.com. On these sites, companies can post job listings and freelancers worldwide can bid on them, usually in an auction-style format.

Caution: while this instant job bidding works well for small and non-complex tasks, it’s not always suitable for large or complicated jobs.

• “My Ideas”: Companies are now gathering the opinions, ideas and recommendations of their customers and then surfacing the most popular of those. Mystarbucksideas.com is an example of how to tap the wisdom of crowds to innovate and figure out what your customers want.

“We now have tools to quickly access the knowledge and views of a large number of people,” says Dawson. “Business leaders should think about how they can best use collective intelligence.”

Trend 7: Emotional Branding
“Companies will increasingly base their brand on emotion, to avoid basing it strictly on price,” says futurist and Vistage speaker David Houle. “Brands with strong emotional content will command the highest prices.”

Most successful brands establish a deep emotional connection with their customers, says Vistage speaker Ronald Strauss, author of Value Creation: The Power of Brand Equity. Smaller businesses, he says, think of their brand only in terms of marketing collateral, logos, letterhead, and colors. Many CEOs are not yet tuned in to the emotional aspects of branding.

“Giving your brand emotional content is not easy,” says Strauss. “You must first learn to think of your brand as an organizing lens for how you run your business. You then have to understand how your stakeholders look at your brand and how you create or destroy value as your business delivers, or fails to deliver, on its brand promise.”

Strauss offers these tips for small businesses to build an emotional-based brand:

Acknowledge and recognize your customers. Have an ongoing relationship or loyalty program with your best customers. The program should make them want to tell their friends about what you do for them.Figure out how to best serve your customers by studying what they do to serve their customers. Help them serve their customers better.Infuse your brand with values that drive your products or services. People want to feel part of something bigger than themselves, and values such as quality, creativity, luxury, respect and integrity achieve this.At every touch your customer has with your company, treat them consistently well. This makes them feel important.Create satisfying experiences for your customers. People value sensory, pleasurable, intellectual, safe and consistent experiences. For products, these attributes are often achieved with packaging and design. For services, they are achieved by building trust, which comes from consistency of treatment.

The most common failure of brand to resonate emotionally, says Strauss, is when customers perceive indifference.

Tips for Finding Free Research Data

2010-01-12T10:15:00.000+01:00

An extract from

'The Next Big Thing'

Not all statistical data needs to cost money. A careful search can provide a great deal of free information. Good trend marketers have a lot in common with good investigative reporters. Like a journalist, a trend marketer needs to keep a bank of key sources. Some of these will provide universal information. Others will be sector or market-specific.

Government polls can be a useful source of data. Commissioned by individual government departments, they are typically available free. Adding your name to departmental mailing lists will provide regular press releases that detail any research that has been conducted and the most relevant statistics from it. Commercial companies often run polls, the top line results of which they are willing to share. Magazines also often conduct polls of their readers, and these can sometimes offer useful insights, especially among younger audiences. For instance, youth magazine reader surveys in the early 2000s provided me with early clues as to the changing social attitudes of teenagers.

Data about the sales of individual products and services can be obtained from a company’s annual report. And data on new products can be obtained from company press releases. You can obtain these by searching for them online, by signing up to company or PR mailing lists or by looking at the Press, Media or Investor Relations section of a company’s website. Most research companies offer some of their research for free. If you search their websites, you will often find a separate section that provides gratis data. This will typically be older data, and may be located in an archive section. If there is no such section, you can obtain some data by reading the press releases that can be found in the Press section.